On Tuesday, pitchers and catchers reported to their prospective teams' spring training facilities. As Johan starts making progress throwing, and Andrew Bailey discusses how he will live up to the standards of preceding, and ever emotional, Red Sox closer, Jonathan Papelbon, the 9 month plane ride we call our national pastime, is just taking off. With newly acquired free agents beginning to pour into their new homes, there is always room for forecasting, the approaching "Baseball Storm." Self proclaimed baseball meteorologists, like myself, enjoy predicting what will happen this season. Before I make my "official" predictions, which I will reveal on the eve of Opening Day, I wanted to throw out some teams to you and how the recent off season will affect them in the hunt. From now, until the ceremonial first pitch on what ESPN declares Opening Night in April, I will do a detailed analysis of each division. The first division is, the home of the reigning World Champions, the NL Central.
With two of the biggest bats in this division, let alone the league, departing, I am looking forward to more of a nitty, gritty season out in Tornado Alley. The offense will decline, and pitching and defense will win the division.
The Cardinals, coming off an exciting World Series victory, will have to look to a new source of runs, this year. As King Albert left for Anaheim, Lance Berkman grew an epoch older. The comeback sensation of last year probably won't be able to duplicate his unreal performance, last year, considering his age. Free agent signing, Carlos Beltran barely has enough oil left in his tank to play at least 130 games this year, so he isn't a wise acquisition, other than the fact that he is a renowned mentor to young players, and an expert in cosmetic surgery. You could argue that David Freese could potentially lead the Gashouse Gang to another pennant, but he is too injury prone and reminds me of another recent championship game hero with injury problems, David Tyree. Where is the man with gum on his helmet now? Out of the game. As the offensive standpoint takes a step back, the pitching staff grew stronger without paying big numbers this past offseason. Adam Wainwright will return this year, as he and Chris Carpenter will have a perfect 1-2 punch. The only problem is finding a place for Wainwright in a rotation that beat the 2 best offenses in the league to win a World Series.
After a long awaited playoff berth, two years ago, the Cincinnati Reds took a step backwards last year. By having former MVP, Joey Votto, and 30-30 potential, Jay Bruce, the Reds could possibly have the best offense in the NL Central, not to mention that they also play in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the Majors. With young fireballer, Aroldis Chapman, looking to break into the rotation as a full time addition to an up and coming unit. This strong rotation already includes, veteran, Bronson Arroyo; young sensation, Homer Bailey; former Cy Young candidate, Mat Latos; and erratic workhorse, Johnny Cueto. The thing with Latos, is he is coming off a shaky season, where he was hyped to repeat his excellence of 2010. Latos is a good pitcher, but last year he had a losing record at home, and had a home ERA of 3.24, his home games were at Petco Park, a pitcher friendly park. How do you expect him to succeed in Great American Ballpark?
The Milwaukee Brewers have no chance this year. They lost Prince Fielder to the Tigers and are without Ryan Braun for the first 50 games. Whether Braun intentionally used the banned substance is unknown, but if he didn't that means someone in the organization juiced him up. The other outfielder, Nyjer Morgan, is also a ball of trouble. His anger management issues will stand in his way of executing what he was brought in to do, get on base, win with your speed. All of this off the field issues will distract a team with hope and promise. Despite having sluggers, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, the departure of Fielder will change their roles, regardless of Braun's suspension. The pitching staff of the Brew Crew might be a stronger force this season. With the Ax-man closing out the few wins they will muster this season, and Yovani Gallardo hopefully breaking that wall between good and great. Zach Greinke struggled last year, but maybe after a year in the NL, he will be more comfortable and understand the hitters he will face.
What is there to say about the Cubs that hasn't been said at least once, since 1908; the Cubs have won the World Series! No not this year, and probably not for another few years or century. For what seems like the millionth time, the Cubs don't stand a chance this year. The pitching rotation doesn't have anything that stands out to me, other than Matt Garza(Yawn). Kerry Wood is the Brett Favre of the MLB. He doesn't know when to leave. Wood is not who he used to be, and never will be. Paul Maholm and Chris Volstad have shown promise, but they don't seem like they can anchor the rotation. The offense isn't any better. The outfield is loaded with yesterday's all stars. The age of the men playing in front of the ivy, will be reflected through the team's record. The infield got younger, but in the wrong way, slugger Aramis Ramirez now joined the Brewers, so the lineup will suffer. People think that the Cubbies are insured with Starlin Castro for 10+ years, but the last Cubs rookie that was supposed to be the Savior of Chicago was Geovanny Soto. His numbers have declined, so you can expect Castro to follow in his footsteps, as the Cubs are not an organization of growing talent or cultivating it.
After a hot streak in 2011, where it was possible that the Pirates could win their division and have their first winning record in a long time, they fell apart. This collapse during mid-summer, lead to the Pirates missing the playoffs, yet again. The Pirates showed promise in 2011, but they also revealed their immaturity, as they couldn't return to their previous state, before the botched call at the plate that ended a heartbreaking, extra inning loss to the Braves, as the call did not only end the game, but arguably the season. By having a younger team, the Pirates may be able to play hard down the stretch, if they can keep their composure. Picking up A.J. Burnett was a good deal, because when he played on small market teams in small media cities, he was actually a decent pitcher. The Pirates also brought in Erik Bedard who, if he can stay healthy, can have a strong season. James McDonald has already proved his effectiveness and could be good down the stretch, and Jason Grilli could be good out of the pen, to set up Joel Hanrahan. What I like about the Pirates, is when I look at their roster, I see names I know, and names I don't know. This shows me that this team has arising players, budding stars, and proved veterans. With Rod Barajas, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Clint Barmes, and Nate McClouth; this team appears to be very balanced. This can help them overtake some of the more unbalanced teams, like the Cubs(too young) and the Cardinals(too old).
The Houston Astros are leaving the NL Central next season. There seems to be nothing that this team can do to hop out of the cellar of this exciting division. The Astro roster contains many have beens or hyped players. A lot of these players peaked to early, or haven't met their expectations. It seems that the roster is one for an impromptu pickup game, or for an independent league game. The sooner the 'stros get out, the better. There needs to be a new beginning in the Lone Star State.
2012 NL Central Predicted Standings
1st: Reds
2nd: Pirates
3rd: Cardinals
4th: Brewers
5th: Cubs
6th: Astros
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