2012 NL West Preview

The NL West is one of the most competitive divisions of all time. Since 2006, each team has won the division or a wild card spot, and they usually go pretty far into the Postseason. The NL West is a time bomb ticking, waiting for a major thrust in September to explode the fan bases in The Wild, Wild West.

The San Francisco Giants are one of those teams that trails off for a while, but when they return to their usual state of excellence, they are unstoppable, well maybe not the offense. The heart and soul of this team is pitching. Pitching is what brought San Francisco, the city's first baseball championship. With all stars, and a back to back Cy Young Award winner, the Giants dazzled the baseball world with their low ERAs, that matched their offense's low run total, and their starting rotation's win total. Last year, the only team with a lower ERA than the Giants was the Philadelphia Phillies, who had the H2O combination, and in 2010 the Giants had the lowest. The worst thing the Giants did this offseason was get rid of Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez was a wonderful asset to a Giant rotation including, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Ryan Vogelsong. Lincecum and Cain are solid ace material. I'm still waiting on Vogelsong to see if he is a one hit wonder, but judging from last year, he could easily be any team's #2 guy. Sanchez was a decent young pitcher who could get wins and keep his team in the game, despite the low offensive production. Oh, and how can I forget the comedian turned facial hair guru, turned star closer: Brian Wilson - Fear the Beard. Wilson was consistently dominant in 2010, but last year, he and most of his fellow teammates took a step back. Ever since Wilson got his beard, his whole demeanor changed. He suddenly became a shutdown closer and the biggest personality in baseball. It seems like 2 of Wilson's bullpen pals have taken after his facial blooms, as both Sergio Romo and Jeremy Affeldt are sprouting contest winning beards, to mirror his success. The San Fran pitching is stellar, compared to their under performing offense. In 2010, the offense wasn't too strong, but they were effective to win games, but last year, they couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat. After Buster Posey's season ending injury, the offense fell apart, Aubrey Huff looked as if he wanted to strike out, and everyone else took after him, as the Giants lost a lot of games 2-1 and 1-0. Last year. the Giants only scored 570 runs, the 2nd least in the MLB. That is unacceptable, as they should have won so many more games with their elite pitching. Hopefully, with Buster Posey returning and Angel Pagan providing more leadoff production than Andres Torres, they can bounce back and return to the Fall Classic. The team's offensive catalysts last year were Carlos Beltran and Pablo Sandoval. These two gave the Giants hope until mid-September. Beltran is gone, and someone new has to arise, to help propel this team to another World Championship, as the offense is wasting the pitching staff's time, with their petty production.

One of the biggest surprises of last year, was the Diamondbacks. Out in the desert, the Dbacks had long awaited success, as everything seemed to click for the first time in a few years. The pitching improved, and the offense came together to steal a division title from a collapsing NL West. New stars arose, and established ones became even more respected and vaunted. People always think Justin Upton crucified the opposing pitching, but his numbers don't show the vaunted stellar performance it seems he has had. He may be good and young, but Upton isn't at the level people think he is. The start of his career is one hundreds of ballplayers his age would die for. But I complain as people hype him, and I do not like hype. I need to see a .300 season, 100+ RBIs, and a 40 homerun season, before I join Upton Mania. Stephen Drew and Chris B. Young provided excellent pop, with their fair share of power. Ryan Roberts was a pleasant surprise. "Tat Man" caught fire down the stretch, and was imperative to the success of the Dominance from the Desert. These 4 will likely execute like they did last year, which puts the Diamondbacks in the driver seat, as the hunted. Paul Goldschmidt broke in with the big league club late last season. Down the stretch he provided youth and power. Goldie has an outstanding ability to put balls behind the wall, and has an opportunity to shine brighter than a Phoenix midday sun. Jason Kubel was an absolute steal for the Diamondbacks. Kubel has experience and can mentor the young players. He also provides pop and will flourish in Chase Field's hitter friendly environment. Another standout who exploded into a group of elite players at his position, was Ian Kennedy. Kennedy surprised everyone in the baseball world by winning 21 games, 10 more than his career total going into the 2011 season. I am looking for Kennedy to continue his success, if he tries to be Ian Kennedy. If tries to be Randy Johnson or Brandon Webb. Young pitchers run into trouble when they try to be someone they're not. Trevor Cahill was a good acquisition for the Dbacks. Cahill has shown flashes of greatness before, but now, with a sturdy core of players behind him, an effective manager, and some other talented pitchers, he will shine. J.J. Putz returns as the closer, he was a deserving candidate for The Comeback Player of the Year award, last year. Putz performed miserably in his short tenure with the Mets where he would turn the infield into a merry-go-round. J.J. had 45 saves last year, and was essential to the ousting of the Giants. The Diamondbacks are a team you cannot root against. They contain my 3 keys for success. This criteria of youth, talent, and experience meets the basis of Kirk Gibson's squad.

Chavez Ravine's ball club won't be bleeding just blue this year, they will be bleeding away a rich history of a celebrated organization that has turned south. Yes, the Dodgers aren't who they used to be. The Boys of Summer are just beginning their long climb back to the top. There are few bright spots on Don Mattingly's lineup card. Andre Ethier has become an established player with a knack for hittin' 'em where they ain't. Matt Kemp is one of the most exciting players in baseball and has proven himself to be a perennial MVP candidate for years to come. Kemp is a 5 tool player, as he will dictate the Dodger outfield and lineup. James Loney is yet to have his terrific breakout season. Loney is always in the mix as one of the elite first basemen, but he doesn't produce like a typical first baseman, with his low power numbers. Juan Uribe can provide hits but he will turn 33 this week,which means he is entering the latter part of his career, and lacks one of my success keys- youth.Uribe brings his intelligence to a team of raw talent and if he can stay healthy, he sets an example for all of the players, not just the rookies. Jerry Hariston and Adam Kennedy also assist with offensive production, however, don't expect them to be significant everyday player, they will have their moments, but not a full year's worth. The pitching resembles the offense. There are some good players, who have mad their mark in the league, some moldy cheese, and some you don't even know who they are. Clayton Kershaw is probably one of the only pitchers in his prime on the staff, right now. The reigning Cy Young Award winner performs in accordance with the Dodgers' history of pitching greatness. Kershaw won 21 games last year, had 5 complete games, and struck out 248 batters in 233 innings of work. This lead him to low ERA of 2.28. Kershaw reminds me of Steve Carlton, (I think I made this analogy before) when he pitches, it's "win day." Chad Billingsley is a unique specimen. Billinsgsley has had success in the past, but he always trails off and can't finish what he started. When he is on, he's on. But when he can't get outs, you might as well bring Kershaw in one day after pitching. Behind these two young phenoms, is a sturdy backbone of age and experience that is capable of sharing 35+ wins. Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly are going to surprise a lot of people who counted them out years ago, if they all stay healthy. So if you consider that Kershaw wins 20 games, Billingsley wins about 12, and the other 3 share 35 wins, we are looking at the standard starting pitching winning 67 games. The Dodgers can be serious wild card candidates this year, but their weakness is the bullpen. Mike MacDougal and Todd Coffey are good pitchers, but other than those two, who else is there? If my estimates are correct, the Dodgers are legitimate contenders for the post season. The offense has a few standouts, I know at the beginning I acted like the Dodgers' only hope would be to relocate to Brooklyn, to start anew, but once you look past the off the field antics, you actually find a good ball club worth about 90 wins.

San Diego is a great place for family vacations and baseball players that aren't good enough to start in the other 28 major league cities- the Mets and Yankees share the Big Apple. These players have looked promising or are verging toward the end of their career. Even though the Padres front office gives these players seemingly irrational opportunities and the privilege to play everyday, they always find themselves floating above mediocrity. All of these nobodies turn into a somebody, and in a competitive division, like the West, if they stay healthy and above water, they have a chance. In the infield, 2 experienced individuals, Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson, command the middle infield, while slugger, Chase Headley plays 3rd. At first is Yonder Alonso. I don't know much about Alonso, but he has a high average and an average OBP. He probably doesn't draw a lot of walks and doesn't hit for enough power to meet the credentials of a 1st baseman. The outfield looks okay. Carlos Quentin had his one great year, where he was in a homerun title chase, but since and before than, he hasn't matched that level of production. Cameron Maybin seemed like the next great star that the Marlins would have to trade away for $, but once he reached the major league level, he has had trouble meeting his projections of greatness. Maybin has the qualities to be a successful everyday player, but he never seems to be able to put it all together. He can run, hit, field, and throw. What more could you ask for? Well, how about using your talents to help win ball games. Will Venable is a good table setter for the big guys at 3,4,and 5. The only problem with that, is that he doesn't have guys to consistently drive him in. Part of the reason is Kyle Blanks. This kid can hit, but he would narrowly beat a snail in a relay race, even if Usain Bolt was on his team. When Blanks drives it, he can hit it to the next area code. I'm not such a big fan of the pitching. Again, I know a lot of these names, but they don't mean anything more than what I saw on MLB Network's Quick Pitch. Tim Stauffer isn't exactly ace material and will be outdone by other No. 1 guys. Edison Volquez never met his expectations to be an elite pitcher with a blazing fastball. In the Hamilton-Volquez trade, the Rangers got the better side of it as Hamilton is one of the most respected players in the game and Volquez has already left town. Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley are two young guys with potential if they stay on course, unlike most of their teammates. Huston Street was one of the best moves the Padres ever made. Street hasn't recently been who he was a few years ago, but he is still a great closer. The Padres aren't going to win a division title this year and probably not next year, but this team is headed in the right direction.

Everything changes in the Mild High City. Between the weather and starting quarterbacks in Denver, you are never sure of what may happens with any given topic on any given day. One thing that is also constantly changing is how the Rockies play. One year they're loaded with All Stars pushing for October, and the next they're trying to have at least 5 starting players off the injured reserve. One person you never know what you will get out of him is Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez had a stellar season in 2010, but last year he took a "holiday" from executing. Troy Tulowitzki is an exciting, all around player. Known for his above average power for a shortstop Tulo also usually portrays good character, but he has had temper problems, one instance where he ended his season upon breaking his bat on a locker room toilet seat. Dexter Fowler is a stud. His speed is electrifying and when a ball goes into a gap, he is a runaway train. Fowler, Gonzalez, and Tulowitzki are all 5 tool caliber players that meet my 3 keys- youth, experience, and talent. Todd Helton is a strong force from 1st base and is established as a hitting machine and a respected team player, especially in the clubhouse. Jason Giambi is a good bat off the bench and can be vital in late season games with clutch hits. Marco Scutaro is a solid player that is successful when he plays his game, by getting on base and beating you with his speed. Like Helton, Casey Blake and Michael Cuddyer are also an established players with good reputations. They both bring experience and Blake could hit about 20 homeruns this year, while Cuddyer can bat .300. Next to the Dbacks, the Rockies have the best offense in the NL West. Offense is what will keep the Rockies in the hunt, but what will hurt them is their pitching. Jeremy Guthrie as an ace? Come on! He was the Orioles' #1 pitcher, and they were a disaster. Don't get me wrong, Guthrie is a good pitcher, but he should be a 2 or 3 starter. At least he will have some defense and offense behind him, opposed to his horrific tenure in Baltimore. Tyler Chatwood might have a breakout year, if he makes the big club. The offense will score 5 or more runs at least 50% of the time, and the pitching will probably give up 3 or more runs 75% of the time. This type of proportion will make Raphael Betancourt's job a helluva lot harder, as he will be summoned in clutch situations to preserve wins or keep an 8-8 game tied. It's good that Betancourt is an experienced closer, and not a young kid looking to make it at the professional level. This team has talent but pitching will hold them back. Expect there to be a lot of 10-9 and 7-5 wins/losses.

2012 NL West Predictions
1st: Diamondbacks
2nd: Giants
3rd: Rockies and Dodgers (tie)
5th: Padres