Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Can Nerlens Be the First Noel?

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This year’s NBA Draft lacks a superstar player that will undoubtedly go first overall. In recent years, players like Kyrie Irving and Lebron James were almost definite number one picks. There is not one single player that will unquestionably turn an organization around completely like James, Tim Duncan, and Derrick Rose have done in the past fifteen years. There is less of a question that Andrew Wiggins will be next year’s number one pick compared to this year’s draft, which is just over 48 hours away.

This year’s NBA Draft is not a bad draft class. There are big names like Kansas’s Ben McLemore, reigning AP Player of the Year Trey Burke, and Kentucky big man Nerlens Noel. Most mock drafts project Noel as the number one overall pick, but with all the questions surrounding the nineteen year old can he become the third Kentucky player to be taken with the first pick in the past four years?

Taking Noel is a risk, as he is thought to be among the most talented and coveted in this year’s class, despite coming off an ACL injury. Considering Noel has yet to play since his February 12 injury, he may be too much of a liability to be taken number one. Noel played just 24 games before his injury, giving the Cavaliers, or any lottery pick, a limited view of John Calipari’s latest one and done phenom.

Teams also do not know how Noel will return from his injury, as he might lack NBA caliber agility and play conservatively to prevent another injury. Noel also did not participate in pre-draft workouts.

Another question surrounding Noel is his lack of size and power as a center at 6’11’’. Before the season, Noel was listed to be around 230 pounds but his injury has caused him to drop to under 210. Noel’s lack of size will hurt him in the paint, rebounding against gargantuan players like Roy Hibbert. Being only nineteen, Noel has time to grow and get stronger, but the clock is ticking for this not-so-big big man.

In his 24 games, Noel averaged about eleven points and ten rebounds per game. These stats are usually not good enough for a number one pick, but it is what happens on the other side of the court that brings the undersized center fame.

Noel tallied 106 blocks for the Wildcats in his shortened season, averaging more than four a game. Despite his lack of size, Noel is considered be one of the top shot blockers to ever play basketball.

The hype is not real with Noel. Just because he played in Lexington does not make him the next superstar of the NBA. Noel is an undersized defensive minded player lacking an elite offensive game. Even if he played the entire season, Noel would still not be the definite number one pick.
At best, Noel grows and develops a better build, becoming a journeyman defensive specialist like Tyson Chandler. Even in the best-case scenario, the number one overall pick is too valuable for a player focused on defense. Despite the comparison, Noel will not become the next Dwight Howard due to his lack of size and offensive ability. At worst, Noel joins Greg Oden on the never-ending list of first round failures in the NBA.

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